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         物資供應是電(dian)網(wang)建(jian)(jian)設(she)的重要(yao)保障,然而,當(dang)供應商(shang)(shang)無法按時供貨(huo),出現(xian)履約(yue)風險時,很可能影響到電(dian)網(wang)建(jian)(jian)設(she)。怎樣避免供應商(shang)(shang)違約(yue)給(gei)電(dian)網(wang)建(jian)(jian)設(she)帶來損失呢?國網(wang)江蘇電(dian)力研發了新武器,大(da)家(jia)來一起看(kan)看(kan)吧!

 履約(yue)風險加大

 國網(wang)(wang)江蘇(su)電力(li)的建(jian)設任務(wu)(wu)繁重,每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)物(wu)資(zi)需求量(liang)約(yue)為(wei)200多(duo)億人(ren)(ren)民幣,物(wu)資(zi)供(gong)應(ying)涉及(ji)(ji)供(gong)應(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)多(duo)達4800余(yu)家(jia),物(wu)資(zi)品類繁多(duo)、特點各異。近年(nian)(nian)(nian)來(lai),供(gong)應(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)違約(yue)事(shi)件(jian)在(zai)(zai)數量(liang)上總(zong)體(ti)呈現增加趨勢(shi),2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)～2013年(nian)(nian)(nian),該類違約(yue)事(shi)件(jian)增速分(fen)別為(wei)230.30%、267.89%,供(gong)電企(qi)業在(zai)(zai)產(chan)(chan)能風(feng)險防范方面(mian)面(mian)臨巨(ju)大(da)挑戰(zhan)。一(yi)些供(gong)應(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)經(jing)(jing)營(ying)不(bu)善,無法及(ji)(ji)時供(gong)貨(huo)甚至破(po)產(chan)(chan)倒閉,對(dui)于電網(wang)(wang)建(jian)設有很大(da)影(ying)響。但(dan)如何發現其經(jing)(jing)營(ying)問題、掌握(wo)其經(jing)(jing)營(ying)狀(zhuang)況(kuang)呢?僅(jin)僅(jin)依靠(kao)財務(wu)(wu)報表、每(mei)年(nian)(nian)(nian)的資(zi)質核實是不(bu)夠的。受人(ren)(ren)力(li)、物(wu)力(li)等(deng)因素限制,此前江蘇(su)電力(li)物(wu)資(zi)公司無法全(quan)面(mian)核查(cha)(cha)供(gong)應(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)排產(chan)(chan)狀(zhuang)況(kuang),一(yi)般(ban)只(zhi)有在(zai)(zai)物(wu)資(zi)沒能按期供(gong)貨(huo)時才(cai)會覺察(cha)。為(wei)了(le)及(ji)(ji)時了(le)解供(gong)應(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)經(jing)(jing)營(ying)狀(zhuang)況(kuang),提(ti)前感(gan)知核查(cha)(cha)供(gong)應(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)產(chan)(chan)能問題,國網(wang)(wang)江蘇(su)電力(li)開(kai)發了(le)供(gong)應(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)產(chan)(chan)能預警系(xi)統(tong),該系(xi)統(tong)能對(dui)供(gong)應(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)產(chan)(chan)能進行主動(dong)預警,防止供(gong)應(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)風(feng)險擴散或惡化。

 用電(dian)量中探真相

 供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)與用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)息(xi)息(xi)相(xiang)關(guan),依(yi)據(ju)(ju)這一(yi)原理(li)(li)(li),2014年(nian),江(jiang)蘇電(dian)(dian)(dian)力物(wu)(wu)資(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)根(gen)據(ju)(ju)大數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)理(li)(li)(li)念,開展基于(yu)(yu)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)研(yan)究,2015年(nian)年(nian)初完成(cheng)(cheng)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)開發,并于(yu)(yu)當年(nian)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)了(le)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)試(shi)運行(xing)(xing)(xing)。該(gai)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)主要預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測(ce)(ce)(ce)兩方(fang)面的(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian),一(yi)是(shi)經營(ying)(ying)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian),二(er)是(shi)轉(zhuan)包(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。經營(ying)(ying)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)即(ji)企(qi)業因經營(ying)(ying)不善無法按時(shi)(shi)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)貨,轉(zhuan)包(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)即(ji)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)私自將(jiang)訂單轉(zhuan)包(bao)出(chu)去(qu),這也是(shi)我(wo)們所不允許(xu)的(de)(de)(de)。如(ru)果(guo)(guo)出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)經營(ying)(ying)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian),通過供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)波(bo)(bo)動可(ke)以看出(chu)。如(ru)果(guo)(guo)出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)轉(zhuan)包(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian),那么會(hui)(hui)出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)主營(ying)(ying)業務收入很(hen)多,但(dan)是(shi)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)少(shao)的(de)(de)(de)情況。我(wo)們會(hui)(hui)比(bi)較同(tong)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業、同(tong)類型(xing)的(de)(de)(de)企(qi)業單位產(chan)(chan)值耗電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang),如(ru)果(guo)(guo)單位產(chan)(chan)值耗電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)很(hen)少(shao),就有(you)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)出(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)轉(zhuan)包(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。江(jiang)蘇電(dian)(dian)(dian)力物(wu)(wu)資(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)質量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)監(jian)(jian)督部(bu)副主任徐冶秋說。江(jiang)蘇電(dian)(dian)(dian)力物(wu)(wu)資(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)選取一(yi)定(ding)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)作(zuo)為(wei)樣(yang)本,展開基礎調研(yan),收集供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)歷(li)(li)史用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)、合(he)(he)同(tong)物(wu)(wu)資(zi)種(zhong)類、主營(ying)(ying)業務收入等數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju),利用(yong)(yong)資(zi)質審(shen)核(he)(he)結(jie)(jie)果(guo)(guo),對(dui)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)樣(yang)本組(zu)(zu)按產(chan)(chan)品種(zhong)類進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)梳理(li)(li)(li),將(jiang)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)按行(xing)(xing)(xing)業分(fen)類,結(jie)(jie)合(he)(he)歷(li)(li)史用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)及(ji)(ji)主營(ying)(ying)業務收入,設定(ding)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)標準指(zhi)標體系(xi)(xi)(xi),并測(ce)(ce)(ce)定(ding)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業各指(zhi)標最低(di)標準值,為(wei)轉(zhuan)包(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)提供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)依(yi)據(ju)(ju);同(tong)時(shi)(shi),建立用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)析(xi)模型(xing),對(dui)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)單個(ge)樣(yang)本的(de)(de)(de)歷(li)(li)史用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)分(fen)析(xi),采用(yong)(yong)神經網(wang)絡算法、再次取樣(yang)法等科(ke)學方(fang)法,預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測(ce)(ce)(ce)該(gai)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)次月(yue)(yue)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)及(ji)(ji)合(he)(he)理(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)波(bo)(bo)動區間(jian),實(shi)(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)對(dui)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)實(shi)(shi)時(shi)(shi)監(jian)(jian)控、及(ji)(ji)時(shi)(shi)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)。每(mei)月(yue)(yue)初,江(jiang)蘇電(dian)(dian)(dian)力物(wu)(wu)資(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)比(bi)對(dui)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)上(shang)個(ge)月(yue)(yue)實(shi)(shi)際用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)與預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測(ce)(ce)(ce)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang),如(ru)果(guo)(guo)低(di)于(yu)(yu)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測(ce)(ce)(ce)值50%以上(shang)的(de)(de)(de),將(jiang)其(qi)(qi)納(na)入經營(ying)(ying)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)紅(hong)色(se)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing);低(di)于(yu)(yu)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測(ce)(ce)(ce)值但(dan)不足50%的(de)(de)(de),則(ze)將(jiang)其(qi)(qi)納(na)入經營(ying)(ying)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)黃色(se)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing);如(ru)果(guo)(guo)高于(yu)(yu)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測(ce)(ce)(ce)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang),則(ze)判斷為(wei)正常。我(wo)們每(mei)月(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)初會(hui)(hui)從營(ying)(ying)銷系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)獲取上(shang)月(yue)(yue)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)信息(xi),然后(hou)導入產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)分(fen)析(xi)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong),系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)會(hui)(hui)根(gen)據(ju)(ju)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)生成(cheng)(cheng)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)報告(gao)(gao)。我(wo)們會(hui)(hui)參考(kao)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)報告(gao)(gao),結(jie)(jie)合(he)(he)平時(shi)(shi)對(dui)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)(de)了(le)解,做一(yi)份用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)析(xi)報告(gao)(gao),選取其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)需(xu)要重點關(guan)注的(de)(de)(de)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang),派現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)場(chang)(chang)核(he)(he)實(shi)(shi)小組(zu)(zu)去(qu)核(he)(he)實(shi)(shi)情況。江(jiang)蘇電(dian)(dian)(dian)力物(wu)(wu)資(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)質量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)監(jian)(jian)督部(bu)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)管理(li)(li)(li)專職卞華星說。以2015年(nian)9月(yue)(yue)的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)分(fen)析(xi)為(wei)例(li)。2015年(nian)9月(yue)(yue),經營(ying)(ying)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)18家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia),其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)黃色(se)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)13家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia),紅(hong)色(se)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)5家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia),未預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)214家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia),預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)數(shu)(shu)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)相(xiang)對(dui)于(yu)(yu)8月(yue)(yue)份下降41.94%;轉(zhuan)包(bao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)74家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia),其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)黃色(se)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)36家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia),紅(hong)色(se)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)38家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia),未預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)141家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)。物(wu)(wu)資(zi)人(ren)員對(dui)13家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)進(jin)(jin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)場(chang)(chang)核(he)(he)實(shi)(shi),核(he)(he)實(shi)(shi)結(jie)(jie)果(guo)(guo)表(biao)明,符(fu)合(he)(he)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)結(jie)(jie)果(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)有(you)7家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang),其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)1家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)已(yi)被銀行(xing)(xing)(xing)監(jian)(jian)管,3家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)已(yi)停(ting)(ting)產(chan)(chan),3家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)減產(chan)(chan)。不符(fu)合(he)(he)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)結(jie)(jie)果(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)有(you)6家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)。現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)場(chang)(chang)核(he)(he)實(shi)(shi)是(shi)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)的(de)(de)(de)重要環節。通過現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)場(chang)(chang)核(he)(he)實(shi)(shi),供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)企(qi)業能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠掌握更真(zhen)實(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)(de)信息(xi)。在2015年(nian)9月(yue)(yue)的(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)場(chang)(chang)核(he)(he)實(shi)(shi)中(zhong),某生產(chan)(chan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜保護管的(de)(de)(de)企(qi)業被紅(hong)色(se)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing),現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)場(chang)(chang)核(he)(he)查(cha)時(shi)(shi)該(gai)企(qi)業處于(yu)(yu)停(ting)(ting)產(chan)(chan)狀態,供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)(shang)負責人(ren)表(biao)示只停(ting)(ting)產(chan)(chan)十天。但(dan)根(gen)據(ju)(ju)現(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)場(chang)(chang)核(he)(he)實(shi)(shi)人(ren)員的(de)(de)(de)考(kao)察,停(ting)(ting)產(chan)(chan)時(shi)(shi)間(jian)應(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)遠超10天,存在履約風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。江(jiang)蘇電(dian)(dian)(dian)力物(wu)(wu)資(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)將(jiang)其(qi)(qi)納(na)入重點關(guan)注對(dui)象,持續關(guan)注其(qi)(qi)生產(chan)(chan)狀態,防止經營(ying)(ying)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)(jin)一(yi)步(bu)擴大。

 逐步探(tan)索(suo),逐步完善

 產(chan)能(neng)(neng)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)運(yun)行(xing)了一年多,有成效,也有改進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)。2015年,產(chan)能(neng)(neng)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)共(gong)對(dui)2188家(jia)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)了經營風(feng)(feng)險監(jian)(jian)測,發出預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)439次,對(dui)1859家(jia)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)了轉包(bao)風(feng)(feng)險監(jian)(jian)測,發出699家(jia)轉包(bao)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)。根據預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)結果,江蘇(su)(su)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)物資公(gong)司從現場核(he)(he)實從中(zhong)抽取25家(jia)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)現場核(he)(he)實,其(qi)中(zhong)10家(jia)存在(zai)(zai)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)停產(chan)或減產(chan),一家(jia)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)被銀(yin)行(xing)監(jian)(jian)管,5家(jia)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)廠房搬(ban)遷,用戶(hu)戶(hu)號變更。顯著的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)成效也是通過(guo)一步(bu)步(bu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)摸(mo)索實現的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)。產(chan)能(neng)(neng)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)最(zui)初的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)準(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)確(que)(que)率并不(bu)(bu)太高。當供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)停產(chan)、減產(chan)、廠房搬(ban)遷、用電(dian)(dian)(dian)戶(hu)號變更等情況發生(sheng)時(shi),江蘇(su)(su)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)物資公(gong)司無(wu)法(fa)及時(shi)獲知(zhi)相關信息。另外(wai),針(zhen)對(dui)具體供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang),江蘇(su)(su)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)物資公(gong)司無(wu)法(fa)知(zhi)曉該(gai)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)與其(qi)他省份的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)合作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)程度,僅(jin)以國網(wang)(wang)江蘇(su)(su)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)對(dui)其(qi)發生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)物資采購行(xing)為(wei)作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)分析(xi)依據,在(zai)(zai)一定(ding)程度上無(wu)法(fa)準(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)確(que)(que)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)經營風(feng)(feng)險與轉包(bao)風(feng)(feng)險評(ping)估。為(wei)了進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)一步(bu)提升(sheng)(sheng)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)準(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)確(que)(que)率,江蘇(su)(su)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)物資公(gong)司針(zhen)對(dui)變更用電(dian)(dian)(dian)戶(hu)號的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang),在(zai)(zai)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)內及時(shi)變更其(qi)信息,并重新(xin)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)分析(xi);其(qi)次,按(an)照一定(ding)比例隨機抽取預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)結果樂觀(guan)、系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)評(ping)估不(bu)(bu)存在(zai)(zai)經營與轉包(bao)風(feng)(feng)險的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang),并進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)行(xing)現場核(he)(he)實。經過(guo)不(bu)(bu)斷的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)修正和完(wan)善,供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經營風(feng)(feng)險預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測準(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)確(que)(que)率從系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)用之初的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)79%提升(sheng)(sheng)到(dao)了88%,轉包(bao)風(feng)(feng)險預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)測準(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)確(que)(que)率從40%提升(sheng)(sheng)到(dao)了72%。經過(guo)一年多的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)運(yun)行(xing),產(chan)能(neng)(neng)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)基(ji)本達到(dao)了系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)構建的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)最(zui)初目的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de),但目前預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)范圍還是集中(zhong)在(zai)(zai)江蘇(su)(su)省內,無(wu)法(fa)得到(dao)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)(ying)商(shang)(shang)和其(qi)他省的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)合作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)數據,但是該(gai)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)如(ru)果作(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)為(wei)典(dian)型經驗(yan)在(zai)(zai)全(quan)網(wang)(wang)推廣(guang),實現資源共(gong)享,能(neng)(neng)夠進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)一步(bu)提升(sheng)(sheng)預(yu)(yu)(yu)(yu)警(jing)(jing)(jing)準(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)(zhun)確(que)(que)率。國網(wang)(wang)江蘇(su)(su)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)物資部主(zhu)任蔡榕說。